If it is true, as attributed to Mexican poet and novelist Amado Nervo, that "sadness is a gift from heaven and pessimism a disease of the spirit," we could say that in Western Europe the spirit relating to the economy is seriously damaged, and even more so in our country, Spain. Or not: it depends on whether we judge only appearances or delve a little deeper. The data from the latest global survey of chief executive officers (CEOs) by the consulting firm PwC is very significant in this regard. Some may say that it is realism rather than pessimism, and others may prefer to describe it as prudence. Although we will only know for sure when the data can be verified in relation to current expectations, the truth is that there are some key interpretative factors specific to Spain.
Growth expectations are the worst globally since 2012, with more than half (53%) of respondents saying the economic situation will worsen in the next 12 months; a figure that rises to 6 out of 10 (59%) in the case of senior executives in Western Europe, and shoots up to almost four-fifths (78%) in the case of Spaniards. In fact, in Spain, only 1 in 10 dares to say that the situation will improve. The main consolation we have left is that, both globally and nationally, the majority believe that there will be a slowdown in growth, but not a recession.
With these expectations, it is curious that Spanish CEOs are more confident in their ability to meet their goals for this year. In this regard, we are less infected by pessimism than the rest of Europe, where one in four executives (25%) are confident of ending the year within budget, while in Spain the proportion is one in three (32%).
With or without pessimism, it is clear that there are certain characteristics that stand out when discussing potential obstacles or barriers in the Spanish economy compared to the global economy. Thus, when asked about "threats," the responses of those surveyed in Spain present a differentiated picture: both globally and nationally, the primary negative cause is overregulation, but in our country it is mentioned with almost twice the intensity (61% vs. 36%); secondly, and this is even more interesting, because the next three threats are not among the "top" of those declared globally: cybersecurity is cited with the same intensity (61%), while globally this concern ranks fourth; and in joint second place (56%) are political uncertainty and the speed of technological change, compared to trade conflicts and economic uncertainty, which rank second and third globally.
The contrast in opinions between Spanish CEOs and the global and European average on a key issue for the future is also very relevant: how the Internet, including social media, will evolve depending on the impact of government regulation. Thus, while the primary threat to growth is, in all cases, overregulation, when it comes to its impact on the Internet, expectations regarding the consequences could not be more different. Spanish executives believe that the Internet will become less fragmented because they think that governments will adopt global legislation on content, commerce, and privacy; this is the opinion of 6 out of 10 respondents. However, in the rest of Western Europe, the thinking is just the opposite: for the majority (54%), the Internet will become more fragmented due to the influence of national legislation, which will be specific to each country. This view is practically repeated worldwide, with the majority of CEOs (50% vs. 40%) sharing the same prediction.
And if we said at the beginning that Spanish CEOs are the kings of optimism, this is a question to be reconsidered if what we are trying to measure is expectations regarding the improvement of business and professional skills. As in the case of results achievement, Spanish executives once again show greater self-confidence than their colleagues. Two out of three (65%) say there will be moderate (44%) or significant (21%) improvements in establishing skills improvement programs, a percentage that drops to 54% in Western Europe (35% + 19%) and worldwide (36% + 18%).
One final factor that highlights these differences in expectations is the opportunities associated with climate change. When asked specifically about this, one in five Spanish CEOs (20%) said that initiatives to combat climate change would enable their organizations to develop new product and service opportunities. This figure is still below that of their colleagues in Western Europe (26%) and the rest of the world (25%), but Spain is seeing the most marked increase in this regard, as only a year ago these opportunities were seen by a mere 3%. Thus, Spanish executives seem to be somewhat late to the possibilities of the green economy, but they are arriving "at full speed" and ready to lead this future market.
Pessimism or realism? When the global consensus is one of economic slowdown, having a below-average "macro" perspective may be overly cautious. But perhaps it is better to look, as in this case, at micro variables such as confidence in one's own results or expectations of skill improvements. Perhaps these are the data that should be looked at when trying to determine our ability to overcome adverse conditions.
Photo byAndreas KlassenonUnsplash
