BRAINTRUST, a leading consulting and professional services firm in the tourism sector, has released a new report from its Tourism Barometer estimating the number of foreign travelers who will visit our country in the coming years. As the company predicted last March, 2024 will see a new record for visitors and spending.
With a forecast of more than 91 million international tourists for this year, and spending estimated at around €125 billion, calculations suggest that these figures will be significantly exceeded in the coming years. The international context, economic developments, and the actions taken by different destinations may influence the continued breaking of records, not only in terms of numbers but also in terms of spending, together with the promotion being carried out by Turespaña abroad.
Spain will become the world leader, reaching 115 million foreign tourists in the coming years.
The consulting firm states that sustained growth in foreign tourism is expected over time, positioning Spain as the leading market for international travelers in the coming decades, reaching 115 million travelers by around 2040, placing it at the top of the podium as the number one tourist destination in the world, ahead of France.
Tourism's share of GDP will continue to grow, reaching levels above 15%.
In fact, autonomous communities and municipalities in Spain are increasingly updating and planning their tourism policies with an eye toward growth, with tourism expected to exceed 15% of the national economy in the coming decades, a figure that has already been exceeded in communities such as the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.
Some places, such as emerging destinations, will seek quantity, while others, such as mature destinations, will seek quality, as this tourism industry accounts for a large part of the GDP of different territories, as shown in the map produced by BRAINTRUST.
For Ángel García Butragueño, Director of Tourism at BRAINTRUST: "Tourism is once again proving to be the economic engine of our country, with overwhelming strength and commendable resilience, whose importance will increase in the future thanks to our extraordinary value proposition. Spain is called upon to lead the industry globally with a model of sustainable tourism, both from an economic point of view, an area where work has been done in the past, and from a social and environmental point of view. To this end, it is advisable to implement a state policy of sustainable tourism, such as the one planned by the Secretary of State for Tourism between now and 2030, which is in line with the manifesto issued by Conestur just a few days ago. Spain cannot and must not live without tourism, but that tourism must be very different, with a complete paradigm shift. At BRAINTRUST, we are working towards a new model of sustainable tourism, designing new strategies for our clients and revealing business opportunities in a new era in order to achieve the best results in the short, medium, and long term.
Traditional source markets will see their share of total arrivals fall below 70%.
In this dilemma between quantity and quality of international travelers, depending on the needs of each destination, questions arise about what the new international tourists of the future will be like, given that Spain has been benefiting from the economic, social, and geopolitical situation in the world, which must be taken advantage of by building loyalty among foreign tourists, offering them unique experiences that encourage them to return and spend more per day.
To begin with, it is very likely that these new tourists will not be European, and if they are, they will not be from the more traditional markets such as the United Kingdom, Germany, or France, reducing the weight of traditional source markets to below 70%.
Although European markets currently account for three-quarters of travelers, the increase in travelers from the Americas (both the US and the rest of the continent) and the rest of the world, especially Asian countries, indicates that at least one-third of travelers will not come from traditional markets.
Spending will continue to rise, doubling the average daily expenditure figures for 2017.
In the future, new visitors to Spain will not come just for sun and beach relaxation. There is a growing trend toward "mixed" trips, that is, leisure mixed with work, an event (concert, show, etc.) combined with a few days of relaxation or even cultural and gastronomic experiences accompanied by a little sun.
BRAINTRUST estimates indicate that more than 25% of travelers will come for these types of mixed motivations, which shows the success of the work carried out by the various administrations and companies in diversifying our offering.
The weight of the summer months in the total number of arrivals is gradually decreasing and is expected to fall below 30% (in terms of passenger numbers) compared to 38% in previous years.
In line with the different motivations for visiting Spain, there will also be diversification in destinations. The top six autonomous communities that currently account for more than 90% of tourist arrivals (Andalusia, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Catalonia, the Valencian Community, and the Community of Madrid) will see their share reduced in favor of others with less current weight.
This reduction will not be rapid, but it will occur gradually, as indicated by our forecasts for the coming years, where regions such as Galicia, Asturias, the Basque Country, Navarre, Castile and León, Castile-La Mancha, and Extremadura will gain followers for their tourism offerings, far from the traditional sun and beach.
Similarly, it is quite likely that new visitors will not travel with a package tour, as almost 30% will do so; with regard to accommodation, forecasts indicate that, although 2 out of 3 will stay in hotels, 1 out of 3 will opt for other types of accommodation.
Linked to all of the above, new international travelers visiting our country are expected to spend an average of between €2,000 and €3,000 on their vacations. Taking into account their stay (approximately 8 days), this represents an average daily expenditure of between €200 and €300, almost double what was spent before the pandemic.
In fact, the consulting firm estimates that by 2030, average daily spending will double compared to 2017, reaching approximately €280 per day, and between 2035 and 2040, average daily spending could rise to €340 per day, doubling the 2022 figure.
According to José Manuel Brell, Partner in charge of Quantitative Studies and Models, and the Tourism and Leisure Industry at BRAINTRUST: "Our studies reveal a profile of new foreign tourists that is relatively different from what we have traditionally seen, both in terms of their origin and their motivations, leading to higher average daily spending in the coming years. These tourists are more similar to the prototype we often refer to in discussions where quality is pursued rather than quantity. This is due both to changes in global society and to the efforts being made by some players to attract a different kind of tourism. In particular, we must highlight the extraordinary efforts of Turespaña to position our country as a rich, diverse, safe destination with different types of tourism that are increasingly attracting visitors from abroad. Our forecast points to steady growth in foreign tourism, given the ongoing geopolitical circumstances and Spain's unbeatable offering, and we will have to prepare to receive the 115 million foreign travelers estimated by our mathematical models. However, to achieve these figures, we must ensure that visitor arrivals bring more benefits to our society than the harm they cause. Only then will we achieve a successful model.
