BRAINTRUST has conducted a new wave of its Tourism Barometer survey at a time of uncertainty, albeit with light at the end of the tunnel, which suggests that Spanish travelers will once again save the tourist season, accounting for 77% of the total number of tourists visiting our destinations.
Domestic travelers will once again be key to the recovery of tourism
Once again this summer, according to forecasts by the BRAINTRUST Tourism Barometer, Spanish travelers will be the mainstay of the industry's recovery, accounting for up to 77% of annual travel, provided that the Spanish government's plans to achieve herd immunity by the summer are fulfilled. However, there could still be some local mobility restrictions, although after the end of the state of emergency, bookings would skyrocket as a result of the rebound effect expected from pent-up demand, as reported by Spanish travelers to BRAINTRUST, given the savings generated during all these months of frugality in leisure spending.
Meanwhile, international tourism in Spain is expected to gain momentum in 2021, with an estimated 50% of foreign travelers returning to pre-pandemic levels this summer, increasing its total share in 2021 to 23%, depending on the pace of vaccination programs among citizens and coordinated de-escalation measures between different countries, along with the implementation of the digital green certificate.
In 2020, as BRAINTRUST anticipated, domestic travelers accounted for a total of 101,523,862 trips, compared to 193,574,716 in 2019, representing a drop of 47.6%.
The direct consequence of this reduction in the number of trips in 2020 was a drop in Spanish tourist spending, which reached 56.0% of pre-COVID levels (from €48.066 billion to €21.135 billion).
This meant that domestic tourism accounted for 84% of total travel in 2020, compared to 16% for foreign tourism, whereas in pre-pandemic years the ratio was 68% domestic and 32% international.
The tourism trends that emerged during the pandemic remain: domestic nature destinations, small and rural hotels, and travel by private car.
The BRAINTRUST Barometer confirms that the consequences of the pandemic on the travel industry are here to stay. This consulting firm predicts that the vast majority of Spanish travel will once again be domestic, to remote and nature destinations, which means we will be staying in small, rural hotels and will prefer to travel in our own cars, seeking the health and safety that has been so important to us since the virus appeared in our lives. Even with progress in vaccination, travelers continue to be cautious and prudent, favoring nature destinations, whether beach (55%) and/or mountain (41%) destinations, compared to urban destinations, which remain stagnant at below 25%. On the other hand, there has been a notable increase in the use of second homes, reaching almost 21%, undoubtedly motivated by economic factors but also by a desire to restore normality to the lives of Spaniards.
A unique opportunity for some cities, where safe, uncrowded, and sustainable destinations could be the winners in this race for more evolved travelers in the wake of the pandemic.
In its latest wave, the BRAINTRUST Barometer reveals some significant results for the coming season once mobility restrictions are lifted, namely the rise of small towns located within natural areas, generally inland, where a wide range of cultural and heritage attractions are complemented by more comprehensive experiences, including gastronomy, adventure, sports, and health and wellness activities. In this sense, cities such as the 15 that make up the World Heritage Cities Group, and similar concepts, are gaining ground on large cities and major urban centers in both Spain and Europe, which still have some way to go before reaching pre-COVID levels.
For José Manuel Brel, Co-Director of the Tourism Barometer and Partner responsible for Quantitative Studies and Models at BRAINTRUST: "The tourism model must evolve to showcase not only sun and beaches, but also the rich and vast offerings of Spanish destinations as a whole. Spanish tourists, on whom the sector is pinning its hopes for the summer season, and international tourists, as mobility restrictions are eased, will return to traveling as before, but with the lesson learned from the pandemic that travel is a necessity that must be valued and savored. This is shown by our Tourism Barometer, which highlights the shift away from traditional, overcrowded destinations towards new, more diversified and sustainable destinations, endowed with a natural and cultural wealth that meets the needs of a new post-COVID tourist. Moving forward in this direction will balance our tourism model towards socioeconomic, environmental, and territorial sustainability, correcting past imbalances.
The seasonality of domestic tourism varies by region, allowing for greater economic sustainability in some communities and less in others.
In its detailed analysis, BRAINTRUST has developed an index of seasonality of domestic tourists and their spending by autonomous community, offering a complete picture of the economic model by region and identifying those communities that have the most potential for economic sustainability and employability. a fundamental aspect of the Plan for Modernization and Competitiveness in Tourism of the Secretary of State for Tourism, which supports the development, evolution, and restructuring of these destinations with a view to the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda.
SEASONALITY INDEX OF SPANISH TOURISTS TO THE AUTONOMOUS COMMUNITIES
Prepared by BRAINTRUST (based on INE 2019 data)
It can be seen that the Balearic Islands, Asturias, the Valencian Community, Cantabria, Galicia, Andalusia, and Murcia are the autonomous communities with the highest seasonality index, reflecting that the expenditure they receive from Spanish tourists is not spread throughout all months of the year. In this sense, they have a model that could be improved in terms of economic sustainability. In contrast, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, the Basque Country, Aragon, Navarre, and Catalonia do receive a more similar amount of spending from domestic tourists month to month and, therefore, do not depend so much on the massification and concentration of their visits to sustain their economic infrastructure and maintain tourism employment throughout the year.
For Angel García Butragueño, Co-Director of the Tourism Barometer and Director of Tourism at BRAINTRUST, "Researching and understanding the market is key to maximizing demand and preparing supply. In a competitive environment where nothing will ever be the same again, Spanish destinations must focus on quality tourism rather than seeking quantity, as was the case year after year before the pandemic. Public institutions, encouraged by Spanish and European policies, are seeking to reconvert destinations, making them more sustainable from an economic, social, environmental, and territorial point of view, providing a large amount of funds for this purpose. This is the path to the future that we are working on at BRAINTRUST, developing strategic sustainability plans for destinations, and where all actors in the value chain must look to build a new form of tourism that will allow us to remain global leaders in the 21st century.
